Social Explosion in Madagascar

Prises de position - Prese di posizione - Toma de posición - Statements - Prohlášení - Заявления

Since Thursday, September 25, Madagascar has been the scene of large demonstrations against increasingly frequent and unbearable water and electricity cuts, and more generally against the staggering inadequacies of public services. These suffer from a lack of investment by the government, which has little interest in the masses’ fate or in their ghastly living conditions ; against corruption, abuse of power, etc. (1). The authorities opted for repression : curfews, bans on demonstrations, etc. ; the police's use of live ammunition has left « at least » 20 people dead and hundreds injured. This did not prevent the ferment – initially confined to the capital Antananarivo – from continuing and spreading to other cities, forcing President Rajoelina to dismiss the government on September 29 (while accusing protesters of being paid by foreign powers to carry out a coup !). But the government’s dissolution was not enough to placate the anger. There continued demonstrations calling for the president to resign, and the attempt to mobilize his supporters on Saturday, October 4, was a failure. The informal group which called for demonstrations on social media – Generation Z (2) – and other organizations issued a statement on Monday, October 6, calling for a general strike to bring about the fall of Rajoelina and the appointment of a « transitional president ».

President Andry Rajoelina – a Franco-Malagasy businessman – was elected for his first term in 2019, promising to fight inequality and corruption, improve the lives of the population, and defend the country's interests against the influence of foreign multinationals. These promises turned out to be a deception. The president’s inner circle has been implicated in corruption scandals, social inequalities have widened, and a few big capitalists such as Mamy Ravatomanga have amassed immense fortunes and become the country's shadow rulers – while 75% of the population lives below the poverty line (World Bank report, 2024).

Rajoelina's promises struck a chord because, as mayor of the capital in 2009, he led a popular movement comprising demonstrations and a general strike (claiming « the people are taking back power! ») against President Ravalomanana – head of a sprawling agri-food group (Tiko) – that brought the state to its knees. The bloody crackdown on anti-government protesters left more than 80 people dead. In March 2009, the military ousted Ravalomanana and appointed Rajoelina as transitional president, a position he held until the 2013 elections. Rajoelina enjoyed strong support from French imperialism, for whom Ravalomanana was too close to the United States and South Africa (3). Although France no longer has a hegemonic position in its former colony, it is the country's largest customer, more than the United States and Japan, it is also – according to the WTO – the largest investor, ahead of the United States with nearly 300 companies. It is nonetheless only its fourth largest supplier, behind China, Oman, and India. Its influence is still real, exercised in particular through military and security channels. A Madagascan newspaper wrote the following about a recent Franco-Madagascan military exercise ( « Tulipe 2025 »): « France (...) , which already has a strong military presence in Réunion and Mayotte, is consolidating its influence by maintaining security partnerships with Madagascar. In any case, this military collaboration is part of a broader competition for influence between different powers, notably China (...) ».

The youth galvanizing the movement were inspired by the uprising in Nepal : in early September, despite a bloody repression (more than 80 dead), Nepalese demonstrators forced the government to flee and an interim government to be appointed, after the army took control of the situation. But the problem in Madagascar, as in Nepal and elsewhere, is not limited to a few politicians or corrupt cliques enriching themselves at the expense of the whole population. It is the economic and social structure of capitalism ; in which one social class (the bourgeoisie) monopolizes the wealth produced by wage-laborers (the proletariat) and toiling masses (small farmers, etc). Replacing the president alone would not change the situation. It is the capitalist structure and the bourgeois state that must be attacked... Otherwise, even the most powerful social explosion will only lead to the maintenance of the system. This was demonstrated by Rajoelina himself, who, once in power, behaved like the former president against whom he had fought.

This will require a revolutionary organization and party to lead the struggle along class lines, in union with the proletarians of other countries ; the solidarity of the proletarians in the imperialist countries – France foremost among them – will be necessary to oppose their interventions in defense of the bourgeois order.

This is not an immediate prospect ; so strong is the inevitable, democratic cult of the people's interclassist unity, and so prevalent are illusions about support from the « international community » (i.e. the major imperialist states and their international organizations). But it is the only one to offer a future for the proletariat and the poor masses of Madagascar, the only one that will prevent their struggles from being canalized into a facelift of the capitalist order once again.

(1) The lack of investment in the public water and electricity company, Jirama, causes the power cuts affecting the poor populations, while the bourgeoisie can afford to buy generators.

(2) See the Facebook page, « generation z Madagascar » : https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id= 61581175712529l

(3) The French allegedly paid the soldiers who brought Rajoelina to power. Cf Le Monde Diplomatique, March 2012.

PS: The CAPSAT soldiers (who had been the authors of the 2009 coup d'état), mutinied on Sunday 12. They forced the resignation of the prime minister, a military officer appointed last week by the president, and appointed a new army chief of staff. President Rajoelina, still protected by French imperialism, was "exfiltrated" by the French military while his godfather, the great capitalist Mamy Ravatomanga, is said to have fled to Mauritius. The military said on Tuesday that it would maintain order in the country. The masses who are cheering them today will soon realize that they have acted not to "protect the people" as they say, but to protect the bourgeois order

October 12, 2025

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