Iran in the grip of brutal repression and imperialist threats

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The bloody suppression of the protests once again enabled the Iranian regime to overcome the serious social unrest that has shaken the country in recent weeks.

Everything began on 28 December with demonstrations and the closure of shops by traders in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar following the collapse of the currency, which threatened the profitability of their businesses; these protests subsequently spread to other cities. The traders in particular criticised a system of multiple exchange rates that allows large enterprises to enrich themselves through foreign-currency speculation, while making access to foreign currency — essential for protection against inflation — more difficult for others. These politically conservative strata have always been pillars of the regime; for this reason, the government initially adopted a conciliatory stance towards the demonstrators, whose demands were even described as “legitimate”. The situation, however, began to change when students from various universities across the country mobilised with slogans hostile to the regime, and then when the demonstrations, hitherto relatively limited, became mass protests and demonstrators began to attack buildings symbolising the regime.

The authorities responded, as usual, with brutal repression: this time no longer only with tear gas, but also by firing on demonstrators with shotguns and live ammunition from military weapons. At the same time, the government blocked the internet in order to prevent its use by the demonstrators and to curb the dissemination of propaganda by opposition media based abroad. This, however, also produced an information blackout regarding the course of events and the extent of the repression. The number of victims and arrests is not known with certainty, but everything indicates that they are far higher than in previous crackdowns; there is talk of several thousand dead and wounded: the order of the Islamic Republic was restored in blood.

Although the protests initially emerged as an expression of the anger of the bourgeoisie and petty bourgeoisie concerned solely with their own interests, the conditions facing broad layers of the population are so desperate that the protests rapidly turned into a genuine uprising against the regime, reaching even the most remote regions and drawing the proletarian masses into the struggle. This is not the result of appeals by the son of the former Shah, Israeli propaganda, or statements by Donald Trump, but rather the consequence of a drastic deterioration in living conditions, the growth of poverty, and the continuously deepening social inequalities. According to official statistics, inflation stood at 60 per cent in January (year on year), but in reality it is far higher: for basic necessities it is estimated to have reached as much as 200 per cent. For 2025, the minimum wage amounted to 104 million rials per month (approximately EUR 65), the lowest level in the countries of the region, and is wholly insufficient to offset inflation (moreover, many workers do not even receive this minimum wage). Official trade unions are calling for the minimum wage to be raised to 600 million rials (around EUR 375), while the government is planning only a 20 per cent increase in public-sector wages, which would thus rise to 187 million in 2026, to which an allowance of 10 million (around EUR 5) is to be added for a period of four months. One Iranian MP, however, has estimated that a family would require 450 million rials per month to meet basic needs (580 million according to the unions). Labour-market participation is estimated at less than 50 per cent. According to official data, 36 per cent of Iranians live below the poverty line, but this figure is undoubtedly lower than the reality; some estimate it to be closer to 70 per cent.

The consequences are immediate also in the sphere of public health; according to the Ministry of Health, 120,000 people die each year as a result of “growing food insecurity”, that is, the inability to secure basic foodstuffs. Between 50 and 70 per cent of the population suffer from various nutritional deficiencies, which weaken the immune system and contribute to the development of bone diseases (1).

Leaving aside the movement of 2009, triggered by the electoral victory of the conservative Ahmadinejad and sometimes referred to as the “Twitter revolution”, whose suppression claimed more than a hundred lives, a wave of strikes and workers’ demonstrations swept through the poorest regions of the country and the working-class districts of Tehran in 2017–2018 (the largest concentrations of workers, for example in the automotive industry, largely remained on the sidelines). The slogans rapidly became politicised and revealed the erosion of electoral illusions: “Bread, work, freedom!”, “Down with the dictator!”, “Conservatives and reformists alike, the time for reckoning has come!”, and so on. The regime responded with violent repression, which claimed dozens of lives. In November 2019, a sudden increase in petrol prices (doubled overnight) sparked new protests and violent unrest across much of the country. What was the largest and most violent protest movement since the founding of the Islamic Republic was suppressed by the authorities with exceptional brutality (firing on demonstrators from helicopters, the use of machine guns, etc.), while the internet was simultaneously shut down for a week. The death toll was estimated at around 2,000. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, however, was the main factor that the Iranian government (like many others) used to restore calm.

Protests and strikes flared up again in 2022 and culminated later that year in the “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement following the killing of a young woman by the morality police for “improper” wearing of the veil (2). The movement, which initially affected primarily students and intellectual circles, gradually spread and assumed an unequivocally anti-regime character. As usual, the authorities responded with bloodshed: during the first three months approximately 500 people were killed, thousands were arrested, and numerous death sentences were handed down.

Although the “reformist” government has in recent times eased pressure to some extent and curbed the excesses of the morality police, it intends to continue pursuing its anti-social policies. Official trade unions have in particular pointed out that the state budget allocates more funds to state radio and television than to ten other ministries combined, leaving virtually no resources for social expenditure. Repressive brutality did not abate even prior to the outbreak of the current protests, as demonstrated by the rise in executions following the “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement: in 2025 they reached record levels, with more than a thousand people executed in the first three months alone.

We will not describe here the complex history of Iran’s relations with the various imperialist powers. It suffices to note that its wealth in the form of oil and natural gas reserves, as well as its strategic position in the Persian Gulf region, have made — and continue to make — this country of more than 90 million inhabitants both a target of imperialist ambitions and a potential threat to neighbouring states and the regional order. The pressure exerted by the Western imperialist powers, seeking to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons (although Iran’s nuclear programme was initiated under the patronage of the United States), stems from their determination to restrict as far as possible the power of a state that is no longer an ally of the West. In 2018, during Donald Trump’s first term in office, the United States withdrew from the international nuclear agreement signed under Barack Obama and imposed new economic sanctions on Iran and on companies trading with it, citing Iran’s growing influence in the region. Since then, sanctions have been imposed on the country on such a scale that Iran is today the most heavily sanctioned country in the world!

As part of their policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran, the United States did not intervene only militarily in the “twelve-day war” launched by Israel in June 2025, but are also seeking to destabilise the regime. During the January unrest, Trump encouraged the demonstrators and suggested that a US military intervention would come to their aid. The Gulf monarchies, led by Saudi Arabia, however, exerted pressure on Trump to abandon this course. Together with Egypt and Turkey, these states fear above all the fall of the Iranian regime as a result of a mass uprising – such an example would be far too contagious! All bourgeois states are united in their interest in maintaining the existing order: counter-revolutionary stability in the region required that the Iranian authorities suppress the unrest. The United States therefore waited until this task had been accomplished, and only then returned to their military threats against Iran…

In Tehran, order reigns — once again. Yet this order is fragile; the social contradictions within the country are such that sooner or later the masses will, despite repression, once again be driven into revolt. But if the next wave of struggles is not to end — like the previous ones — in fruitless bloodshed or to be transformed into a mere patching-up of capitalist domination, the proletariat will have to find the strength to organise itself on a class basis. It will have to rely on its own internationalist and international class party, capable of leading it in the struggle against the united front of all its enemies, internal and external alike, in the knowledge that a proletarian revolution in Iran would bring about the collapse of all the bourgeois states in the region.

(1) Cf https://lessentieldeleco.fr/5007-smic-a-combien-seleve-le-salaire-minimum-en-iran-en-2026/

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